Forecasting Follies with Kirk Loury

Forecasting Follies with Kirk Loury

Can we accurately predict the future? Today, we’re going to learn about forecasting follies.

In this episode, Kirk Loury, portfolio strategist at MCM Wealth and managing member of Advisable Wealth Engines talks about the importance and limitations of forecasting. He highlights the unpredictability of certain factors and the dangers of forecasters making declarative statements with unwarranted certainty. Kirk explains why we should approach forecasts with skepticism, consider the source and methodology, and focus on probabilities for efficient decision-making. He emphasizes the importance of planning and having contingencies in place to navigate the impact forecasts can have when they’re wrong.

Kirk discusses: 

  • What forecasting is and why it’s important
  • The downsides and limitations of forecasting
  • Being wary of forecasters with ulterior motives
  • The role of probabilities in decision-making
  • Why we should and why we shouldn’t ignore forecasts
  • How to use forecasts effectively with caution and skepticism
  • And more


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About Kirk Loury: 

Kirk provides integration between MCM’s marketing, investment strategies, and implementation. He is also a co-founder and managing member of Advisable Wealth Engines. Mr. Loury has over thirty years of experience in a variety of executive roles covering investing, marketing, and wealth-technology deployment. He has particular expertise in applying well-conceived insurance products as investments within a wealth plan to minimize portfolio volatility, deliver high tax efficiency, and meet multi-generational income goals. While having experience with institutional investors, Mr. Loury’s primary focus is with private wealth investors including family offices. Kirk Loury received a bachelor’s degree in marketing from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and an MBA from the Harvard Business School.

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